The Well - Insights

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Latest — Jun 26, 2025

The Strategic Triangle: How Web3, AI, and Cross-Sector User Engagement Will Drive the Next Wave of Digital Adoption

The convergence of Web3 infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and strategic user acquisition beyond crypto-native audiences represents the most promising path for next-generation applications to achieve mass adoption while preserving decentralization. This "strategic triangle" approach offers a compelling alternative to the current paradigm where AI development is increasingly captured by

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Unleashing the power of diversification with a market-timing cryptocurrency hedge fund

In light of the Wisconsin Pension Fund's recent decision to invest in Bitcoin (https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-pension-fund-bitcoin), we would like to showcase the potential benefits of integrating a market timing cryptocurrency hedge fund into a traditional portfolio. A momentum fund like The Well offers the distinct

Market Structure Analysis, Reduced Drawdowns

With Bitcoin at new all-time highs we felt the need to dive deeper into the prevailing market structure to evaluate the state of the market. We believe the market displays one of the healthiest foundations only seen at previous market bottoms and see potential for tremendous price gains. Not without

Record Performance, Positive Convexity

February was our best month since going live. That being said, on an annualized basis, March so far is also going well. What is more, the compounding effects of monthly returns become especially strong when performance is high, and should become even more pronounced over the coming quarters and years.

2023, a year in review

We entered 2023 content with how we handled the 2022 crypto bear market (our maximum drawdown then was less than 4%). When the markets turned in January 2023, in typical fashion, momentum models were slow to catch the reversal. Sudden price spikes are notoriously difficult to capture for momentum models,

AI’s appetite for quant strategies

Last week US markets and crypto rose after the FED revealed they consider cutting interest rates in 2024. Market-implied probability based on CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices estimates that the FED will cut rates by March 2024 with a probability of more than 71%. Looser monetary policy was

Avoiding the Cliff: Steady Wins the Race

A slight pickup in Bitcoin (BTC) volatility last month created a favorable environment for momentum models to reap the gains. Nevertheless, volatility remains low compared to historical figures. We are looking forward to further volatility and the performance of momentum models in their native environment. As we may be approaching

Regime change signs detected

Dear LPs and friends of the fund, Please note, we don’t see ourselves in the business of making market predictions or investment recommendations. However, historical price data, which we use to build our models, contains a considerable amount of valuable information, especially when analyzing data across asset classes and

Momentum models – volatility and market timing

Dear LPs and friends of the fund, given the overall challenging market environment, we would like to share some insights on how low volatility conditions affect the performance of momentum models and an evaluation on the near term future from a statistical perspective. We focus our analysis on BTC as

Use case: CTA for mining operations

As business owners ourselves we know how tedious it can be when people approach you with a pitch on “having the perfect solution for you”. In this case, however, we make a provable mathematical point. The business we are talking about is Bitcoin mining. For the last several market cycles